The future of running in big Indian cities

“Nature... She pardons no mistakes. Her yea is yea, and her nay, nay.” 

                                                                                                         Ralph Waldo Emerson

Have you ever wondered where you will be running in 10, 20, 30 years from now? Will you be still running on your regular road route in Delhi? Will you see the sunrise and hear the birds chirp and wave your hand at the regulars at the park? Will you be in some other State like Mumbai or Bangalore and running there? Do you picture yourself maintaining the same running schedule as you are today? Will it feel the same way as it feels today or will there be changes?

If you have or have not wondered, then let me enable you in picturing how grim and bleak the future for running (worse for cycling) will be in India, with emphasis on the metropolitan cities.

Let us start one by one with the main factors that will affect your running in the future in metropolitan cities or bigger cities:

Traffic and parking

About 1400 new cars (add more numbers for other vehicles) are sold and added everyday to Delhi roads. 

In 2002, the number of cars per 1000 people in India was about 15. In 2011 it was 18 per 1000 people. By 2030, it is projected to be 100 per 1000 people.

Now, what do we do with cars when we don’t drive them? We park them (anywhere). When a car is parked, it occupies as much space as its size and a little more. A parked car actually enjoys its own real estate which cannot be used for anything else for most of the time. In fact I would classify a car as moving real estate because of the space it occupies.

The government is and will be unable to provide new roads and parking space. Imagine today’s traffic and parking problems and now multiply it by 5 and that is just 15 years away. This is without considering the trucks, buses, autos etc.  Keep multiplying by bigger numbers for post 2030 because incomes will grow and there will be an increase in the rate of car purchases. Picture yourself running around and about these parked cars or escaping their zig zag traffic.

In May 2013, the Economic Times reported, “Experts who have used forecasting techniques to understand the extent of the traffic distress in the future say that in seven years every single inch of road space available in the city would be occupied by a vehicle leading to traffic jams that could last for days. At the office of the Delhi Integrated Multi-Modal Transit System (DIMTS), a joint venture between the Delhi government and IDFC, which is trying to work out traffic solutions for the city, a senior transport specialist says that the apocalyptic future has already been seen. "It's here," she says pointing to a page on a thick report on traffic projections for the future.”

We have been taught to run against the traffic while running on roads. I’d like to see people practice running against the traffic in the year 2030 because I’ve never seen actual humans play Temple Run!

Pollution

Delhi has won an award recently. An award from WHO for the dirtiest atmosphere out of 1600 cities. The WHO recorded an annual average concentration of PM2.5 of 153 micrograms per cubic meter in Delhi. The WHO considers the measurement of PM2.5 to be the best indicator of the level of health risks from air pollution.  Overall Indian is at 134 micrograms per cubic meter and Canada is at the other end of the spectrum at 11 micrograms per cubic meter. So you can imagine what we are breathing and especially as runners, the amounts of pollution entering our system.

In May 2013, the Economic Times reported, “According to Basu, the massive growth in vehicular traffic has ensured an increase in sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide; and at least 10% of the population in Delhi shows signs of lung-related conditions such as bronchitis and asthma. This means that there are 16 lakh people in the city who would be suffering from asthma and acute bronchitis at the same time. At least 10% of these would need nebulisers or non-invasive ventilators to just ensure that they get access to oxygen. Most of the traffic policemen who serve in congested areas such as Chandini Chowk are all in bad state; they cannot breathe properly, lungs damaged.”

According to a press release on 21 September 2015 by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, about 6,50,000 people die every year in India due to air pollution. As per Times of India (17 September 2015) Delhi will record 31100 death in 2025 and 52,000 deaths in 2050 due to air pollution.

Population

India is already the second most populated country in the world and by 2025-2028 it will become the most populated country by overtaking China. 

Government mandated population control will most likely not happen in India due to obvious reasons and our societal and customary norms will continue to support procreation. 

On top of the ever-growing population, the general human tendency to provide the best for our own children and the consequent demands from children will lead to more cars on the roads. When your own kid is concerned, is the time when the curtain of bullshit unfurls and the general concern for humanity and society takes a backseat. We are genetically programmed to be selfish and support our own, even if that means that directly or indirectly others are at or will be at a loss. I know of no parent with means who will willingly not buy his child a car, even after knowing that another lego block was added to the ridiculous block by block mess that we have gradually created.

This steadily increasing population and incomes will add significantly more cars and other vehicles on to the roads.

What I foresee for running:

1. Road running will become a peril due to increased traffic and pollution. Road running will lessen significantly. Running with masks will be a common sight.
2. More people (walkers and runners alike) will flock to neighborhood parks and forested areas, consequently making these places extremely crowded and unsuitable for your workouts. Keep in mind that these parks and forested areas will not have the problem of cars but the air over there will still be polluted so your masks will be on. In places like Mumbai where there are hardly any parks, I can imagine the problem being more extreme.
3. Gyms will make a killing due to increased treadmill running. We will wait in line for our turns to get on the treadmill. The bigger gyms with more treadmills will benefit with higher patronage.
4. Treadmill sales will soar and there will be more treadmills stationed at homes.
5. It is unnatural and it feels unnatural to run regularly on treadmills and therefore, treadmill manufacturers will have to devise ways to make running on treadmills more realistic and surreal for runners. 
6. Air purifiers will be installed in gyms and homes since the polluted air will be everywhere. Sheila Dixit was not wrong in installing 16 air purifiers in her house. She obviously knows more than you and me about our air!
7. Races will mostly be organized outside the metropolitan cities in cleaner areas.
8. Runners will train on treadmills or on roads while wearing masks and then travel to the hills or other cleaner places for running races which are organized there.
9. Some runners will shift some workouts or maybe shift lock, stock and barrel to other sports like football and basketball to get a workout outside on a playground (traffic free).
10. There may be relocation to smaller cities to continue running outside in a semi-safe/safer environment. For instance, if I have enough savings, I plan to move to my village in Haryana when the shit hits the fan or if I don’t have the requisite savings then find a job in a cleaner city.
11. There will be negligible newbie runners. Running as a sport will not be taken up actively due to the omnipresent and imminent hazards to health and life!
12. Some will quit running altogether!

I don’t even want to delve too much into the plight of cyclists because it is a sport which requires even more open space and longer duration (which means more time in the pollution and traffic) to get a decent workout. Mostly cyclists will be constrained to remain inside on turbo trainers and it won’t make a difference if you have a carbon frame or a wrought iron frame since they won’t be going anywhere!

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Do tell me that I’m wrong. I’d very much like to hear that :-)

Next instalment of this blog will be on what could be the future of running companies (keeping in mind the above).

And if you are imagining how you will look while running in a mask, then you will definitely not look like Bane

You’ll look closer to this guy instead